Urban-PREDICT

Working Package 1

Accessibility and Relevance of Information

Introduction

Addressing today’s complex challenges around early warnings and weather impact analysis requires open, plural, and effective use of knowledge provided by diverse disciplinary expertise and should consider local, regional, national, and global contexts. Moreover, it is essential that decision-making around weather data, early warnings and mitigation actions considers the relevance of place-based research. Urban areas represent a diversity of socio-economic and cultural backgrounds that should be taken into consideration when developing early warnings and plans for protective actions around weather-related multi-hazard risks. This introduces the concept of tailored warnings whereby warnings are personalized for individuals, groups, communities, or sectors.

Urban areas introduce unique challenges around producing tailored warnings for a large and diverse population. A challenge exists around how to personalize information to incorporate user-specific thresholds and in turn how those tailored warnings are incorporated into user-specific decision-making processes. Furthermore, questions persist around the effectiveness of tailored or highly personalized warnings at influencing risk perceptions and behavioral responses.

To understand the specific urban conditions in which weather-related risks are assessed and early warning systems implemented, WP1 focuses on the analysis of secondary and tertiary sources, to build an understanding of the relevance of data for the local level and explore how context-specific data sources can better inform capacity building and more impactful decision-making processes.

Activities

  1. Develop a framework for case study selection considering criteria such as diversity in climate hazards, varying levels of institutional capacity and data availability, organizational weakness of communities and institutions, and equitable geographical representation.
  2. Conduct reviews to identify practice examples of early warning systems (considering the diversity of hazards) that have had a positive impact in terms of preparedness and response actions, and investigate whether and how warnings were personalized or tailored to the specific needs of the audiences.
  3. Undertake reviews of specific illustrative case studies, including: Paris Opening Ceremony convective precipitation and nowcasting; Personalized Real-Time Air Quality Informatics System for Exposure – Hong Kong (PRAISE-HK); recent floods in South American cities (South of Brazil and River Plate); and the Miami case study: why did the early warning system fail?
  4. Share findings from the literature review through multi-actor workshops, involving scientists, communities, practitioners, and decision-makers, to discuss the material and address further information and data that may be required. These workshops will also evaluate local capacities and co-develop adequate training material.
  5. Develop need-based training material in selected case study areas, alongside guidance and communication strategies co-produced with stakeholders to ensure effective dissemination within communities, locally, regionally, and globally.